In the not-so-distant year 2000 George W. Bush won the Presidential Election over Alan Gore by one Electoral Vote -Gore got half a million more popular votes than the incumbent.
How did that happened?
Because after several weeks of counting and recounting the people were fed up and stopped caring; they just wanted the whole mess to be over with. Bush won a War of Attrition over his opponent. (Legend also has it that George Sr. called young Jeb Bush, then Governor of Florida, and said, “You be sure to count those votes right, boy, or your brother will not be President! And there will be hell to pay” or words to that effect. Another urban legend has Clinton screaming at Gore saying “You should have never conceded! I would have kept on fighting!”
Probably both are true.
Peru is undergoing its own War of Attrition moment. The far-left candidate, an inexperienced and rather simplistic –a polite way of saying ignorant- rural teacher, surrounded by a large staff of operators and strategists sent from Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia and Ecuador has declared himself the winner. We understand this has been on their advice. “Get to the other side -quick! - and say you’ve won”. Many things are in his favor. His made for Hollywood story of the poor man from the highlands against the candidate of the oligarchy.
The dire situation in which post pandemic Peru finds itself: worst performance worldwide. The accusations of corruption that have plagued the last five Presidents and the stain that has spread to several top private companies aligned with them. The fact that the other candidate has a personality problem -several accusations and allegations all unproved so far- and that is disliked by many: she carries a heavy suitcase of past mistakes. (When you have been in politics for 20 odd years this is usually the case; when the only thing you have done is teach third grade and lead a teacher’s strike opposing the evaluation of said teachers before they are hired, you can be pure as driven snow -or not).
None of the above matters.
What is relevant is how many valid votes each of them got. With 98% of the votes giving him a very narrow advantage, Castillo el Profesor, has called for victory celebrations. With a little under half a million contested votes –mostly from rural areas in the mountains but many from voting stations where she won hands down in the first ballot- Fujimori la China is asking for a recount. Here is where both Wars of Attrition part ways.
You cannot trust the authorities in charge of the recount. When reading the foreign Press you could think Peru and Norway voting rules, institutions and traditions are the same. Peru is not Norway. Hell! Is not even Florida, and look how that turned out for Bush! The authorities in charge of counting the votes, after offering to do the recount on live TV, they revised a few paltry voting sheets, out of hundreds of contested ones, and then went back to some secluded place to count the rest.
Out of sight, out of mind.
The Electoral Authorities in place appointed by ousted ex-President Vizcarra, who everything points at being the most corrupt yet of the corrupt lot, would assure Vizcarra that if el Profesor wins he walks.It was reported that his successor, whom we must presume is in cahoots with cahoots with the predecessor, in a clear misunderstanding of his Presidential powers committed the blatant faux pas of calling Nobel Prize Mario Vargas Llosa asking him to intercede and try to get Ms. Fujimori to concede. MVLL later denied this but did confirm that the call had taken place; wrong move and wrong call. In light of all that, and the fact that the Heads of State congratulating Mr. Castillo are the likes of the devaluated President Fernandez from Argentina, tells you a lot about where this is going.
Birds of a feather.
Going back to the heart of the matter or how many votes did each candidate get? This, not whom you like, not who has the best or worst record, not who serves you agenda or your personal interest, is the only thing that counts. (Bad pun). Half a million votes is no chump change. You cannot declare a winner –as journalists from Infobae and Reuters have done- especially when what is in the balance is going from a very imperfect democracy to a perfect Maoist regime.
You cannot rush and disregard the right of the people to a recount just because it looks good on paper. Peruvians cannot back down and accept a fate that they may not have chosen just because they are tired, because the War of Attrition is taking its toll.
Peruvians deserve more and we must all make sure they get what they deserve.
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